Yekaterina Gusin
A view from the CFO: The 2025 UK Autumn Budget and the Rise of Value-Led Market Leaders
As the dust settles on the UK Autumn Budget, a clearer picture emerges of the environment business leaders will be navigating in 2026 and beyond. The overall impact is measured. Larger firms and scale-ups may benefit from improved access to capital, though rising employment and pension costs could limit the upside, while smaller businesses continue to feel pressure from higher tax, employment costs and National Insurance burdens.
These dynamics are likely to prompt more deliberate decision-making across both businesses and households. Companies have enough stability to plan ahead, and consumers are becoming more intentional in how they spend.
Overall, the Budget reinforces the need for resilience and disciplined value creation in the year ahead. For consumer-driven sectors such as banking and retail, success will depend on understanding changing sentiment and adapting strategies accordingly.
Banking and Financial Institutions: Continued Digital Evolution is Key
The Budget brought no major surprises for banks, and that’s good news. With no sudden regulatory or fiscal shocks, financial institutions can stay focused on longer-term digital transformation. As households become more selective in their spending, banks have a clear opening to strengthen customer relationships by delivering value that is timely, relevant and genuinely useful.
This environment amplifies the need for digital ecosystems that keep banks close to real-time consumer behaviour. Loyalty is no longer a peripheral activity - it sits at the centre of retention, lifetime value and competitive differentiation.
Retail and Consumer-Facing Businesses: More Selective Spending Requires Sharper Strategies
For retailers, the effects of the Budget are likely to be felt more quickly. Labour costs continue to rise and consumer pressure is intensifying. Recent insight from Reward shows that essential spending now accounts for 58% of household budgets, up from 48% two years ago. With less room for discretionary purchases, retailers will need to reassess both expectations and engagement strategies.
Yet consumers have not withdrawn, they are spending with greater intention. Reward’s data shows a clear rise in value-seeking behaviour, especially among mid-income households. Retailers with clear propositions and meaningful, relevant value are continuing to outperform.
In this environment, precision becomes essential. There is little room for broad marketing or “spray and pray” tactics when every penny matters. Engagement must be data-driven and targeted, ensuring investment is directed towards the customers, products and moments that genuinely drive returns.
Why Loyalty, Data and Commerce Media Are Becoming Strategic Essentials
With consumer budgets under pressure, engagement strategies need to be smarter. Retailers require a clearer view of which products, price points and moments still drive profitable demand, while banks must deliver reward programmes that feel genuinely useful to retain trust and engagement. Senior leaders across finance, operations and merchandising are increasingly relying on insight to inform decisions that go well beyond marketing.
Commerce media platforms connecting banks, retailers and consumers will become critical infrastructure, enabling targeted and timely engagement at a moment when value-conscious customers are more receptive to personalised support.
Looking Ahead
The 2025 Autumn Budget is a reminder that stability matters more than unpredictability, that consumers respond to relevance rather than noise, and that technology and data are now essential foundations rather than optional enhancements.
For banks and retailers, this is the moment to strengthen digital relationships, deliver personalised value and use first-party data with purpose. Organisations that take this approach will not only navigate the current environment but emerge stronger, more agile and closer to the customers they serve.
